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Type: Multiple-Choice
Category: Represent and Determine Probability
Level: Grade 10
Standards: HSS-CP.B.7
Author: nsharp1
Created: 5 years ago

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Represent and Determine Probability Question

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Grade 10 Represent and Determine Probability CCSS: HSS-CP.B.7

Jason and Eva are watching their friends play poker. They can see Josh's cards. Josh currently has four cards in his hand, and is about to receive his fifth and final card. He has the ace of clubs, two of clubs, three of clubs, and four of clubs. Jason and Eva agree that the best options for his next card would be the five of clubs, or any card in the clubs suit. Jason says that the probability of getting the five of clubs or any remaining club card is the same as simply the probability of getting any remaining club card. Eva disagrees, saying that the probability of simply getting any remaining club card would be different than the probability of getting any remaining club card or the five of clubs. Who is correct and why?
  1. Eva is correct, because the probability of the two events must be added together, which will be higher than the probability of either event by itself since both of these events have a probability greater than zero.
  2. Eva is correct, since when using the addition rule of probability, one must always add the two probabilities (in this case choosing the five of clubs and then choosing any remaining club card), and then subtract the probability that both events occur.
  3. Jason is correct, because the probability of choosing the five of clubs AND any remaining club card is equal to the probability of choosing the five of clubs. Using the addition rule, these cancel out and one is left with the probability of choosing any remaining club card.
  4. Jason is correct, since the probability of choosing the five of clubs is so low, that it can be ignored.